Head of Market Insights @ Genesis Trading | Formerly MD Research @ CoinDesk | Opinions my own, so much to learn

Madrid, Spain
Joined January 2014
First day new job!!! Day 1: promise to keep inbox nice and tidy.
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Over the past 7 days, ETH is up >12% while BTC is up >1%, in a week when the BTC ETFs should be driving even more interest to the largest crypto asset. A large part of the outperformance is down to the narrative that next up are ETH futures ETFs. This is unlikely to happen. /1
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Why? Two main reasons: 1) The ETH futures markets on leading exchanges are not as liquid – average daily volume for the past month on the CME is <30% that of BTC. So, the SEC is likely to conclude that the ETH futures market is not yet liquid enough. /2
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2) There is still, surprisingly, no clarity from the SEC on whether or not ETH is a security. It’s unlikely, sure, but that’s not the same as clarity. In 2018, then-commissioner Hinman said that in his opinion ETH was not a security… /3 sec.gov/news/speech/speech-h…
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but those were his remarks, not the position of the SEC. True, it’s unlikely that his speech was not vetted by the SEC. But since then, both the SEC and Hinman have made public statements distancing his remarks from the official SEC position. /4 crypto-law.us/wp-content/upl…
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And the upcoming merge to Eth 2.0 will make that position more complicated – staked ETH will earn a return, one of the legs of the Howey test. Some argue that other legs are also satisfied. I believe it's unlikely that ETH will be labeled a security, /5 crypto-news-flash.com/is-eth…
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…but it’s not out of the question. Also, remember back in August how VanEck and ProShares submitted ETH futures ETF proposals, and then withdrew them a couple of days later? I wonder why… /6 coindesk.com/vaneck-proshare…
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So, an ETH futures-based ETF is unlikely in the near term. That doesn’t mean the ETH performance is unjustified, however – there are plenty of other tailwinds to support the bullish case, such as growing adoption of DeFi and the Altair upgrade. /7
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And, the barriers in the way of an ETH ETF are solvable. Liquidity will grow organically. And regulatory clarity around the status of ETH is not out of the question in the short term. So, an ETH ETF not just yet but maybe next year? That would be good news for investors.
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One side effect of traditional houses setting up research teams to cover crypto-heavy equities is the deepening + broadening of the level of understanding of crypto concepts among traditional buy- and sell-side institutions. A big plus. coindesk.com/business/2021/1…
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good to be back #madrid
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This is huge, albeit just one step in a gradual move across the Middle East towards a future without oil dominance. And when that day comes (which it eventually will, even without international cooperation), what will the global reserve currency be? edition.cnn.com/2021/10/23/e…
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this is amazing - the major derivatives exchange with the lowest leverage now has the highest BTC futures OI... (chart via @skewdotcom)
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amazing ☀️
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This view never gets old - been a long time since I’ve seen, good to be back #London
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Noelle Acheson retweeted
I read a sentence today that included the words “we no longer have any cultural vocabulary for a hierarchical relationship that is not tyrannical” and I’m going to be thinking about that for a long time
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